Links of Fury

Only the best for my readers.

• Inflation in China is at an 11-year high. People over there have been getting more and more upset for months over rising consumer prices. The PBC is going to have to take this inflation threat seriously, which places upward pressure on Chinese interest rates. Don't look for a return to the kind of footloose lending that drove this boom.
• Ken Fisher argues that this bull market is being driven by the yen carry trade. When the yen goes up, the assets it's being borrowed to buy go down. A spike in the yen could spell real danger in the global asset markets.
• Has the backlash against Cramer begun? I've always wondered what would happen to Cramer when the bull market ended. Will he be tarred and feathered like all other bull market gurus when his disillusioned followers blame him for their mistakes? We may be about to find out.
• Bill Gross surveys the subprime damage.

Other Thoughts . . .

• Is the eye-popping oil-natural gas spread exploitable? The obvious--too obvious--play is to be long NG, but I need to know what I'm missing. If you follow NG closely and have an opinion on this, drop me a line.

If you are one of my purely value-minded friends, please turn away from your computer right now so you don't vomit all over it . . .

• I'm still short the financials, but I'm ready to be proven wrong. We'll probably pop back up to 34 or so in the next few weeks, but I have a moral obligation to be short this chart long-term. Prove me wrong, banks.
  

I'm not a nut for moving averages, but my own experience suggests that decisive crossovers (and retests, like we have here) of the 200-day are good for catching the beginnings and endings of very large, long-term trending moves. Here's the 5-year chart, which shows that we're below the 200-day while the average is declining for the first time in this bull market. Make of that what you will (also, notice the tremendous support around 30 that should keep this market from going straight down).